Restocking And Forecasting
The Restocking system helps the operations team decide exactly how much stock to buy from suppliers and how much to send to Amazon FBA to ensure maximum sales without overstocking.
1. The Data Foundation (Navgold Forecast Asset)
Before running the report, the system needs fresh data from several sources. Users must upload the following files into the Navgold Forecast Asset record:
- Amazon Reports: FBA Inventory CSV and Sales Reports (3D, 7D, 14D, and 30D).
- External Data: Keepa XLSX (for competitor Buy Box and Sales Rank) and Your Price XLSX.
- Historical Context: The previous Forecast Report (to compare velocity changes).
2. Calculating Sales Velocity
The system doesn't just look at total sales; it calculates the Highest Weekly Rate (HWR) to understand current momentum.
The Formula:
- Week 1: Total sales in the last 7 days.
- Week 2: Sales from days 8-14 (Total 14D - Total 7D).
- Weeks 3 & 4 Average: Average sales per week from days 15-30 ((Total 30D - Total 14D) / 2).
The Result: The system picks the highest of these three values as the HWR. This ensures that if an item is "trending up" recently, we buy enough to keep up.
3. The Forecast Formula
The core goal is to have 3 weeks of stock available or on the way.
Forecast = (HWR × 3) - (Instocks + Current Picking + Receiving + 3-Week Surplus)
- Instocks: Quantity currently on open Purchase Orders (not yet received).
- Current Picking: Quantity currently in "Material Transfer" pick lists.
- Receiving: Quantity currently being checked in at Amazon FBA.
- 3-Week Surplus: Any existing FBA stock that already exceeds the next 3 weeks of predicted sales.
4. The "Program Forecast" (Smart Decision Logic)
The system provides a suggested action in the Program Forecast column. Here is the logic it follows:
| If... | System Suggestion | Logic |
|---|---|---|
| No Buy Box Price | "No Buy Box price" | We cannot safely price the item, so restocking is risky. |
| Stock covers 4 weeks | "Hold" | You already have enough stock at FBA for the next month. |
| Zero recent sales but good margin | "Send (Forecast + HWR)" | The item is profitable and we want to "test" the market again. |
| Low Margin (< 5%) | "Low margin" | The item isn't making enough profit to justify the shipping cost. |
| Velocity dropped > 35% | "Sales Dropped: YES" | A warning that the item is losing popularity compared to previous weeks. |
6. Monitoring the Journey (FBA Transfer Tracker)
Once the PO and Material Request are created, the FBA Transfer Tracker report provides a high-level view of where the stock is.
- Status Logic:
- Pending PO: A transfer is planned but no Purchase Order has been issued to the supplier yet.
- Ordered: The PO has been sent to the supplier.
- Partially Received: Some stock has arrived at your warehouse from the supplier.
- Received: All planned stock is now in your warehouse and ready to be shipped to Amazon.